USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI UNTUK MENGURANGI BULLWHIP EFFECT PADA PT. XYZ DENGAN MODEL HOLT-WINTERS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55122/blogchain.v5i2.1888Keywords:
Bullwhip effect, Holt-Winters, Perencanaan Produksi, Peramalan PermintaanAbstract
Fenomena bullwhip effect yang menyebabkan ketidakstabilan permintaan dalam rantai pasok sering menjadi tantangan bagi sebuah perusahaan, seperti yang terjadi pada PT. XYZ. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengurangi bullwhip effect pada rantai pasok PT. XYZ melalui metode peramalan Holt-Winters. Data primer berupa volume produksi dan penjualan selama tahun 2023 dianalisis untuk mendeteksi bullwhip effect, yang ditunjukkan dengan nilai BE > 1,039 pada semua produk. Setelah penerapan peramalan Holt-Winters, nilai BE menurun secara signifikan di bawah ambang batas, menunjukkan peningkatan stabilitas rantai pasok. Hasil uji akurasi peramalan melalui MAPE, MSE, dan SDE menunjukkan nilai error yang memenuhi standar, sementara validasi menggunakan grafik moving range menunjukkan hasil peramalan yang valid. Dengan demikian, metode ini terbukti efektif untuk meningkatkan efisiensi perencanaan produksi dan profitabilitas PT. XYZ.
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